OK, I know I said I wasn't gonna do a deep dive into any more last-ditch GOP bills ahead of tomorrow's big Senate vote, but this one looks intriguing...but not just for the reasons you might think.
Earlier today, GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans & Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer introduced Yet Another short-term enhanced ACA tax credit extension bill...but this one has some very interesting twists.
The mounting support for the legislation, offered by Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), comes as House GOP moderates expressed frustration in a conference meeting Wednesday morning over their leadership’s proposals to address spiking health insurance premiums — without dealing with the expiring tax credits.
There are 43 U.S. House districts where the Republican nominee won by 15 points or less. Of those, one (WA-04) doesn't really count since there were 2 Republicans running in the general election (Washington State has "jungle primaries"). Four others were won by Donald Trump by between 16 - 20 points (AZ-08, CO-04, TX-15 & WI-08).
That leaves 38 GOP-held House seats where the Republican won by 15 pts or less and where either Kamala Harris won, or Donald Trump also won by 15 points or less. The table below breaks these out with both margins, while also listing my estimate of how many residents of each district are enrolled in ACA coverage.
To: Plymouth Union Public Advocacy From: Tony Fabrizio & Bob Ward
Date: July 14, 2025
Re: Expiration of Premium Tax Credits Survey – Targeted Congressional Districts
Our survey of voters in the most competitive Congressional Districts shows Republicans have an opportunity to overcome a current generic ballot deficit and take the lead by extending the healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves. Without Congressional action, the tax credit expires this year.
At a bare, bare minimum, do not settle for a one- or two-year extension of the eAPTCs.
Kicking this particular can down the road for only one or two years would not only be an absolute gift to Republicans politically (since it would push the pain out until just past the midterms, which is of course the only reason why any Republicans are willing to discuss doing so at all), but it would also mean we'd be right back here with the exact same scary headlines a year or two from now, with 24 million people never knowing whether their health insurance premiums are going to skyrocket from year to year.
Nothing is worse for the insurance industry than uncertainty, and anytime they're uncertain about anything you can be sure they'll jack up rates as a "just in case" cushion.
Last week I urged Democrats to demand Congressional Republicans rein in the Trump Regime's out-of-control dictatorial rampage as well as going big on healthcare policy as part of the "government shutdown" battle...but that to the extent that they do make the main focus healthcare policy, at the very least to not settle for simply bumping out the enhanced ACA tax credits by a year or two:
You know I'm a pretty mainstream Democrat. I'm not demanding Medicare for All here. What I am urging on the healthcare front is for three clear demands:
This is gonna be one of the stranger references I've made on this site, but bear with me.
Back in 1996 there was an HBO movie called "The Late Shift" which told the story of the Late Night TV show battle between David Letterman and Jay Leno over who would succeed Johnny Carson as host of The Tonight Show. As stupid as this may sound today, this was actually a Really Big Deal in the '90's...one of those absurd pop culture stories which dominated the headlines and the tabloids for several years.
The movie itself was decent, with some interesting casting including Kathy Bates and Treat Williams, but nothing special. The main problem is that the audience is expected to root and feel sympathy for a couple of dudes who were already rich & famous and who would both continue to be rich & famous no matter how the story played out. The stakes weren't exactly the fate of the world, is what I'm saying.
