So, what does this mean for monthly effectuated enrollment this year? Well, it's pretty safe to say that it's not going to look anything like the ePTC years [ie, 2021 - 2025]; in fact, at least a half-dozen state-based ACA exchanges have posted press releases warning that they're already seeing record levels of plan cancellations.
Instead, it seems pretty clear that the pattern is much more likely to resemble one of the NON-ePTC years. Here's what it would look like if effectuations in 2026 follow the exact path of those years...
...Depending on which year it mimics, average 2026 effectuations will range somewhere between 18.2 million - 20.9 million per month. If so, this would mean anywhere from 1.4 - 4.1 million fewer exchange enrollees than 2025.
