Ever since the MAGA Murder Bill (officially H.R. 1, the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") was passed by Republicans in the U.S. Senate & House and signed into law by Donald Trump a few days ago, I've seen a growing conventional wisdom taking hold on social media: People keep claiming that either all, "nearly all"or at least "most of" the budget cuts & other gutting of various programs and departments won't actually kick in until after the November 2026 midterms.
Now, don't get me wrong--most of those making these claims are well-intentioned; they're saying this cynically, to underscore how disingenuous Congressional Republicans are by back-loading the pain until the midterms are safely in their rearview mirrors. And, to be fair, much of the damage won't being until well after next November.
Over at The New Republic, Greg Sargent has taken this thinking one step further, noting that by delaying so much of the ugliness of the new law until 2027 or beyond...
Political battles are usually won based on appealing to emotion, not to facts, policy or logic.
However, you should still have those facts at your disposal for two reasons: First, they still help you craft appeals to emotion. Second, they also help you craft the actual policy. Besides, I'm a data guy; my primary job is to help put facts & policy into easily-understandable context.
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
Open Enrollment Period through Get Covered New Jersey Begins November 1, 2025
TRENTON — New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Justin Zimmerman today announced a total of $5 million in available grant funds for community organizations to apply to serve as state-certified Navigators for the Get Covered New Jersey Open Enrollment Period and throughout 2026. Navigators offer free, unbiased, community-based education and assistance to consumers seeking to enroll in health insurance through Get Covered New Jersey, the State’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace.
In early 2021, Congressional Democrats & President Biden passed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier. They then extended the subsidy upgrade out by another 3 years via the Inflation Reduction Act.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the upgrade eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
JULY 31st, 2025 - Nevadans Get a Preview of 2026 Proposed Health Insurance Rate Changes for Upcoming Open Enrollment
[CARSON CITY, NV] - Starting August 1st, Nevada consumers who shop for their health insurance on the individual health insurance market can view and provide comments on proposed rate changes for Plan Year 2026.
The Nevada Division of Insurance (Division) has received and made public on its website the 2026 proposed rate changes from health insurers intending to sell plans on and off the Silver State Health Insurance Exchange (the "Exchange"). The Exchange is the state agency that assists eligible Nevada residents to purchase affordable health and dental plans.
Initial Affordable Care Act Rates for 2026 have been posted
The North Carolina Department of Insurance has posted the rate changes requested by insurers for the 2026 plan year individual and small-group market plans offered under the Affordable Care Act.
Posting of the requested rates is part of the rate review process required by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Unlike some types of insurance, the NCDOI does not set rates for health insurance.
The projected average rate change for plans effective January 1, 2026 is 16.0% which is an average rate change of about $87 per member per month (pmpm). Because 16.0% (or about $87) is an average, it is possible to have a different rate change. Factors affecting a member's premium are age, tobacco use, family composition, plan, and geographic area. Expected cost differences by product are updated every year to ensure premium differences are appropriate. BridgeSpan has approximately 200 members enrolled in this line of business as of March 2025.
...The rate change described above is driven by the following factors:
Medical Trend : 9.1%
Change in Benefits, Age, Area, and Network : -1.5%
Change in Market Morbidity : 5.0%
Exchange User Fees : 1.0%
Other : 2.0%
Other includes: actual results vs. expected, changes to admin expenses, and rx rebates. Actual results vs. expected reflect differences between actual results and past assumptions, including a true-up of market morbidity estimates
Pennsylvanians can submit comments on rate requests and filings through September 2
Harrisburg, PA – The Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) today announced that the 2026 rate changes requested by insurance companies currently operating in Pennsylvania’s individual and small group markets are now available. On average, all Pennsylvania health insurers are requesting premium increases in plan year 2026: 19% increase to premiums in the individual market (for people who buy their own insurance), and a 13% increase to premiums in the small group market (for small businesses).
