Up the Subs

Originally posted 12/16/25

Wisconsin has around ~293,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 98% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~19,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~333,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 311,000 statewide.

Originally posted 2/4/25

West Virginia has ~67,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most).

Originally posted 12/19/24

Colorado has around ~282,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 80% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~39,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 321,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 322,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/22/24

Florida has over ~4.7 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. I also estimate they have perhaps ~112,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's over 4.8 million people, or a stunning 20.3% of their total population. 1 in 5 Floridians are enrolled in ACA exchange healthcare coverage (assuming CMS's 6.6% net national attrition rate applies to Florida specifically, the actual number of current enrollees is more like 4.5 million, or 19% of the state population).

Originally posted 12/27/24

South Carolina has around ~632,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~36,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~668,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 623,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/04/25

Georgia has around ~1.5 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~30,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 1.54 million people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 1.44 MILLION statewide.

Originally posted 12/13/24

Michigan has around 531,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~64,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 595,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 556,000 statewide.

How did we get here?

Originally posted 1/21/25

California has ~1.98 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, over 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an estimated ~470,000 off-exchange enrollees. Combined, that's over 2.4 million people, or 6.2% of their total population.

Originally posted 1/29/25

Pennsylvania has around ~496,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 87% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~103,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 600,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 560,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/18/24

Idaho has around 117,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees, although the actual rate filings (summarized later in this post) put the off-exchange total at a much higher ~47,000.

Combined, that's 6.2 - 8.0% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Idaho, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 118,000 statewide.